The same could be said about managing the risk of general aviation. We—both FLYING and the industry as a whole—spend a lot of time preaching to pilots about the mechanics of understanding weather forecasts, determining if the aircraft is capable, and making honest evaluations of our own performance in considering how and when to conduct a flight. But once we identify the need to mitigate a risk, we sometimes have little space left over to describe the tools we can use.

Let’s try to fix that. 

The typical GA pilot is exposed to three broad areas of risk: weather, aircraft suitability, and pilot capability. When the proposed flight raises complications in these three basic areas, we should consider what we can do to bring the increased risk down to acceptable levels while still accomplishing the mission.

WEATHER

To me, weather is the factor posing the greatest risk to safely and reliably operating a personal aircraft. To properly manage it, we first have to understand it then evaluate the options we have. 

Weather is a “what-you-see-is -what-you-get” kind of thing. You can’t change it, but you usually can work your way around the worst of it.

1. Get a Thorough Preflight Briefing

I frequently see National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports in which there was no record of the accident pilot obtaining a weather briefing. The results include classic VFR-into-IMC controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) accidents.

There really is no excuse for not obtaining a thorough preflight weather briefing of some sort. You can call Flight Service on the way to the airport. You can pull up anything you want on your phone before takeoff. The tablet you use in flight probably has the capability to download a complete briefing, including graphics, and organizing the results for you.

• READ MORE: Pilots Don’t Always Communicate Well When Describing Risk

“Thorough” is doing a lot of work here. What we need on a severe-clear daytime flight in search of a familiar $100 hamburger will be a lot less than a wintertime night flight near the Great Lakes. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that a preflight briefing’s detail level should be based on the briefing itself.

2. Timing Is Everything

Another popular saying about weather is something along the lines of “if you don’t like this weather, just wait a bit and it will change.” This truism would seem to have been tailor-made for aviation since that’s pretty much exactly what happens: If you wait long enough, the weather will improve.

Often the weather is moving and—since you can’t do anything to change its trajectory—the smart thing to do is let it go by. If there’s a cold front approaching your departure airport, and you don’t want to fly through it, stay on the ground. It’ll soon pass overhead, and you can launch into clearing conditions.

Afternoon thunderstorms and early morning fog all move and evolve but perhaps not on our desired schedule. Tough—change your schedule. Leave a day ahead or later in the day. The point is to remain flexible in your scheduling to allow for poor weather.

3. Go Around the Problem

Some weather conditions don’t move quickly, or they occupy a wide area. The low ceilings and visibility sometimes associated with a warm front come to mind, as does the wintertime in-flight icing risk. But you have an airplane. Use it to fly around the problem areas.

This plan of action doesn’t work well, of course, if your departure or destination airports are socked in or covered with ice-laden clouds. But those conditions will change, eventually. Sometimes it’s worthwhile to get as close as you can to the weather problem and go the rest of the way the next morning.

• READ MORE: How Do I File a Pilot Weather Report Online?

I’ve often told a tale about a planned trip to Key West, Florida, in the winter that didn’t happen due to widespread IFR conditions. I didn’t have an instrument rating at the time, but I also didn’t think about it long enough to realize I could have gone around the conditions by abandoning a direct route. I would have had to stop for fuel anyway, but I was so focused on flying direct that it never occurred to me that I could go around the problem.

4. Change Your Altitude

A lot of weather problems can be addressed with altitude. Icing above 12,000 feet usually isn’t an issue at, say, 8,000, presuming terrain allows cruising that low. If it doesn’t, find a route around the icing at an altitude that resolves both the icing and terrain issues. If you can’t find one, wait.

A lot of weather and related risks can be mitigated by changing altitude. If there’s a deck of clouds you don’t want to fly in, there’s likely an altitude that will keep you out of it. By the same token, the jaunt across Lake Michigan to get to Oshkosh from the East Coast is a lot less risky at 10,000 feet than it is at 4,000. Headwinds often can be at least partially mitigated by changing altitude, presuming terrain allows.

AIRCRAFT

The old drag-racing sentiment—there’s no replacement for displacement—also rings true in personal aviation. I’m a strong advocate of using as much airplane for the task as you can afford.

As I’ve written (and been chastised for) in the past, my personal minimum for a traveling airplane on “real” cross-countries is 180 hp. In some areas of the U.S. and elsewhere, you can “get by” with less, but you also give up some flexibility and capability. In some areas, 180 hp might not be enough. And almost anything with less power takes too darn long. If the airplane isn’t right for the mission, wishing and hoping it’ll be OK won’t make it better.

But there’s more to choosing the weapons with which we do battle against the elements than just horsepower. What about avionics? Is the airplane’s installed equipment up to the proposed task? You’re not trying to make up for its equipment shortcomings by using portable devices, are you? Got current databases, right? Beyond avionics, what about filled TKS fluid tanks, or supplemental oxygen for climbing high and survival gear for the terrain and season? What about loading—will your at-gross 145 hp Skyhawk crap out at 8,000 feet in the summertime with all its seats filled? (Hint: Probably.)

5. You Can Never Have Too Much Fuel

Just as with getting a preflight briefing, I’ve always been one to maintain that there’s simply no excuse for running out of fuel. Yes, headwinds happen, and FBOs sometimes close at inconvenient times. Deal with it.

Ensuring there’s adequate fuel is one of the responsibilities you accepted when you went for your private check ride. That responsibility doesn’t change when you overfly the last fuel stop before your destination because it will take too long.

You have a number of options: Land short of your destination if headwinds are stronger than forecast. Stop halfway, take a break to help fight fatigue and stretch your legs before tackling the last portion of the flight. Choose a different airplane, one with greater range or better fuel economy.

6. Faster Is Better

If 180 hp is the minimum for cross-countries, it’s implied that more horsepower is better. The same is true when it comes to cruising speed. And not just because you arrive quicker.

Greater speed means you can accept a spirit-deadening headwind and complete relatively short trips without a fuel stop. It means you can cover a lot of territory—and see a lot of weather—in just three or four hours. Most importantly, it means you can fly around, outrun, or outmaneuver more easily the kind of weather that would otherwise keep you on the ground or holed up short of your destination when flying a slower airplane.

• READ MORE: The Ins and Outs of Pilot Weather Reports

One rule of thumb often overlooked when choosing among piston-powered, single-engine airplanes of the same basic configuration is that it can take the same amount of fuel to get from point A to point B no matter what you’re flying.

7. Higher Is Better

 As a reader recently pointed out, flying cross-countries at relatively low altitudes in a single doesn’t make much sense. Flying high in that same single affords you much more time to find a place to land or resolve the problem when an engine acts up. There’s less traffic, and you’ll burn less fuel in cruise once you get there. If that’s not enough, there are other reasons to get as high as you can.

One of them is for a smoother ride in clearer, cooler air. In the summer, it might take a while to climb on top of the haze layer, but the benefits are worth it, especially since doing so allows you to more easily see the way cumulonimbus clouds are arranged and plan your route around them. At lower altitudes, haze and other reductions to visibility can mean stumbling into a situation you don’t want and can’t handle. Climbing to maximize a tailwind’s benefits can also push you beyond poor weather more quickly than if you have to slog through it down low.

The only two downsides of using a higher cruising altitude is the possible need for supplemental oxygen and the greater amount of time it will take to get down in a hurry if you need to.

PILOT

After we mitigate the risks imposed by poor weather and resolve mechanical or equipment issues with the airplane, what’s left falls into a big bucket labeled “pilot related.” That means you.

8. How Are You Feeling?

Launching on a four-hour flight after a full day at the office isn’t the smartest thing I’ve done. 

Especially when getting eight full hours of sleep and launching at zero-dark-thirty to make it on time to a distant appointment is an option. The truth is we often fly when we’re less than 100 percent. The challenge is to ensure the 10 or 20 percent of human performance we might be lacking won’t be needed on a given flight.

9. Are Your Skills Up to the Task? 

Tackling low IFR at your destination, busy terminal airspace, a complicated departure procedure, or an in-flight emergency without the necessary skills is a recipe for disaster.

While we probably have learned how to do all that at one point or another, it’s likely to have been a while since we practiced some of the skills needed to pull it all off. Yet we can be confronted with all that and more almost any day.

Get frequent training in these and other areas.

10. Imagination Is the Limit

The last item on this list isn’t as objective as the others. Instead, it’s a challenge for you to think outside the box a lot of our training puts us in.

Some proposed flights simply can’t be accomplished on the day or time chosen, with the airplane you have and the condition in which you find yourself. It’s the wise pilot who accepts this reality and lives to fly another day. 

That same wisdom also tells us that some flexibility and compromise, along with a little imagination (and plenty of fuel) might allow us to complete the mission anyway, no matter what the aviation gods throw at us.

This feature first appeared in the Summer 2024 Ultimate Issue print edition.

The post Ultimate Issue: Top 10 Tips for Mitigating Risk in the Air appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

Answer: The short answer is no. Echo top height is a volume product that originates from the NWS WSR-88D NEXRAD Doppler radars.

This is the same network of radars that is used to build the familiar radar mosaic pilots readily use in the cockpit. While not provided in the FIS-B broadcast, the echo top height product, however, is arguably the most misused data that is broadcast by SiriusXM to your satellite-based weather receiver.

Despite what many pilots are taught, this product does not represent the height of the cloud tops and should never be used as such since it is often likely to produce unreliable and inconsistent results.

When looking at any ground-based radar depiction, the colors you see are mapped to a quantity in decibels of Z, often abbreviated dBZ, where Z is the reflectivity parameter. As the name implies, reflectivity is the amount of energy that is returned (reflected) back to the receiver after hitting a target.

For precipitation, these targets are called hydrometeors that include rain, snow, ice pellets, and hail. There are a few exceptions, but generally speaking, the higher the dBZ value, the heavier the precipitation.

All deep, moist convection or thunderstorms have both a cloud top (the highest point of the cloud as measured from sea level) and top of the precipitation core within the convection. The “top” of the precipitation core is defined as the msl height of the highest radar reflectivity of 18 dBZ. This altitude is referred to as the echo top height.   

For example, imagine taking a vertical “slice” through a typical thunderstorm, such as the one shown above. The white dashed line shows the west-to-east slice with the echo top height shown on the left and the base reflectivity from the lowest elevation angle shown on the right. The radar depiction on the right is the view most familiar to a pilot.

However, to better illustrate how the echo tops are determined, the depiction below is this same slice from above that is shown as a vertical cross section of the radar reflectivity. In other words, it depicts all possible elevation angles from the radar’s volume scan through this slice.

The colors are the reflectivity values in dBZ. The highest values shown in the precipitation core are about 55-60 dBZ and are all below about 7 kilometers (about 23,000 feet). As height increases in the core, notice the values drop off to less than 15 dBZ.

By connecting the points where the values in the core drop off to the 18 dBZ value, this represents the echo top height (shown by the white squiggly line). For this cell, the highest point in this cross-section is 17 kilometers or roughly 56,000 feet msl.

Cloud top height, on the other hand, is higher than the echo top height. In fact, it can be 5,000 to 10,000 feet higher in some of the most intense storms.

The visible satellite image below is a good example of thunderstorms with overshooting tops. Given the time of day, the highest tops actually cast a shadow on the thunderstorm anvil. This is the column of air in the thunderstorm that will usually have the highest echo tops due to the vigorous updraft. 

Echo top heights are specifically used by forecasters to identify the most significant storms by locating the highest echo regions. Stronger updrafts are seen in regions where the highest echo tops are located.

Moreover, the parameter that has the highest apparent correlation with lightning is not the highest cloud top but rather the highest detected radar echo top of 30 dBZ or greater.

Shown above is the SiriusXM composite radar mosaic shown with the Garmin Pilot app. In addition to the radar reflectivity, storm cell identification tracking (SCIT) markers are shown.

These attempt to identify the movement and echo top height of various cells in the radar mosaic. The height provided is measured in hundreds of feet. If there’s an arrow, this defines the direction of movement, and the end of the arrow represents where the cell might be located in the next 60 minutes given its current speed and direction of movement.  

Lastly, this may seem obvious, but echo tops are not going to help identify the vertical extent of many weather systems unless those clouds are producing some kind of precipitation in the form of rain, snow, hail, or ice pellets.

Therefore, a stratus deck, even one that has some depth, won’t likely be picked up by the radar. In fact, it’s not likely you will see echo tops shown below 20,000 feet because of this. Echo tops are more appropriate for convective precipitation where the clouds have significant vertical depth.  

The post What Are Echo Tops? appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

That’s because both precipitation and smoke are a possibility during the airshow (July 22-28), according to Scott Dennstaedt, author of the EZWxBrief and a FLYING contributor.

• READ MORE: FLYING Unveils ‘Oshkosh Live’ Video Programming Lineup

For starters, the wildfires in Canada and to the west may result in some smoky skies, Dennstaedt said. This was a factor last year, resulting in thick haze, poor visibility, and blood-red sunrises and sunsets. Photographs taken in the early morning hours had a sepia-tone look to them—a bonus if you are taking pictures of vintage aircraft.

In a forecast released Thursday, Dennstaedt predicted AirVenture attendees may smell the smoke earlier in the day but by later afternoon could expect some convective activity that should clear away the smoke due to the unstable atmosphere and ground heating up.

Dennstaedt presents an entertaining and educational look at the factors impacting aviators who are trying to get to the event as well as what to expect when they get there. The data is derived from atmospheric tools used by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

EZWxBrief AirVenture Weather Roundup

The post Flying to AirVenture? What You Can Expect of the Oshkosh Weather appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

Answer: It depends on your mission and how many Ben Franklins you have to spare. Your sferics (short for radio atmospherics) equipment may represent the only real-time weather you’ll ever see in your cockpit.

Sure, panel-mounted and portable weather systems deliver their product in a timely fashion, but it will never be as immediate as your sferics device. Once you understand how to interpret your real-time lightning guidance, it can become a valuable asset in your in-flight aviation toolkit. 

Choices in the Cockpit

You have two options if you want lightning data in the cockpit: You can choose from ground-based lightning sensors or onboard lightning detection from a sferics device such as a Stormscope.

A Stormscope provides real-time data but does require some basic interpretation. Ground-based lightning, on the other hand, is a bit delayed and is only available through a data link broadcast at this time. Ground-based lightning is normally coupled with other weather guidance, such as ground-based weather radar (NEXRAD), surface observations, pilot weather reports, and other forecasts.   

Ground-Based Lightning

The ground-based lightning that’s now available through the Flight Information System-Broadcast (FIS-B) comes from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). This network of lightning detectors has a margin of error of 150 meters for locating a cloud-to-ground strike. The ground-based lightning sensors instantly detect the electromagnetic signals given off when lightning strikes the earth’s surface.    

With 150-meter accuracy, I’d choose ground-based lightning any day. Don’t get too excited, though. Ground-based lightning is expensive (the data is owned by private companies like Vaisala), and you’ll not likely see a high-resolution product in your cockpit anytime soon.

SiriusXM satellite weather pulls from a different lightning detection network and includes both cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning. It produces a 0.5 nm horizontal resolution lightning product. This means that you will see a lightning bolt or other symbol arranged on your display in a 0.5 nm grid.

Even if 50 strikes were detected minutes apart near a grid point, only one symbol will be displayed for that grid point. Same is true for the FIS-B lightning.

Stormscope Advantages

A Stormscope must be viewed as a gross vectoring aid. You cannot expect to use it like onboard radar.

Nevertheless, it does alert you to thunderstorm activity and will provide you with the ability to see the truly ugly parts of a thunderstorm.  Where there’s lightning, you can also guarantee moderate or greater turbulence.   

No lightning detection equipment shows every strike, but the Stormscope will show most cloud-to-ground and intracloud strikes. This allows you to see the intensity and concentration of the strikes within a cell or line of cells with a refresh rate of two seconds. It also lets you see intracloud electrical activity that may be present in towering cumulus clouds even when no rain may be falling.

Even if no cloud-to-ground strikes are present, intracloud strikes may be present. The Stormscope can detect any strike that has some vertical component (most strikes do). This is important since there are typically more intracloud strikes than cloud-to-ground strikes.

To emphasize this point, most of the storms in the Central Plains have 10 times more intracloud strikes than cloud-to-ground strikes. Moreover, during the initial development of a thunderstorm, and in some severe storms, intracloud lightning may dominate the spectrum. 

Also keep in mind that a sferics device does not suffer from attenuation like onboard radar. That is, it can “see” the storm behind the storm to paint cells in the distance out to 200 nm, but it does not see precipitation or clouds.     

Stormscope Disadvantages

It doesn’t take a full-fledged storm, complete with lightning, to get your attention.

Intense precipitation alone is a good indicator of a strong updraft (or downdraft) and the potential for moderate to severe turbulence in the cloud. Consequently, the Stormscope does not tell you anything about the presence or intensity of precipitation or the absence of turbulence.

Never use the Stormscope as a tactical device to penetrate a line of thunderstorm cells. Visible gaps in the cells depicted on the Stormscope may fill in rapidly. Fly high and always stay visual and you will normally stay out of any serious turbulence.        

A Stormscope display is often difficult to interpret by a novice. Radial spread, splattering, buried cables, and seemingly random “clear air” strikes can create a challenge for the pilot. It may take a couple years of experience to be completely comfortable interpreting the Stormscope display. Often what you see out of your window will confirm what you see on your display.    

Radial Spread

As the name suggests, the biggest Stormscope error is the distance calculation along the radial from the aircraft.

The placement of the strike azimuthally is pretty accurate. However, how far to place the strike from the aircraft along the detected radial is a bit more complicated and prone to error.

Lightning strikes are not all made equally. When the sferics devices were invented back in the mid-1970s, they measured the distance of the cloud-to-ground strike based on the strength of the signal (amperage) generated by the strike. An average strike signature of 19,000 amperes is used to determine the approximate distance of the strike.

Statistically, 98 percent of the return strokes have a peak current between 7,000 and 28,000 amperes. That creates the potential for error in the distance calculation. This error is a useful approximation, however, in that strokes of stronger intensity appear closer and strokes of weaker intensity appear farther away. 

In strike mode on the Stormscope, strikes are displayed based on a specific strike signature, whereas cell mode on the newer Stormscope models uses a clustering algorithm that attempts to organize these strikes around a single location or cell.

Cell mode will even remove strikes that are not part of a mature cell. Most thunderstorm outbreaks are a result of a line of storms. Cell mode provides a more accurate representation to the extent of the line of thunderstorms.

Radial spread is not necessarily always a bad thing. You can use it to your advantage to distinguish between false or clear air strikes and a real thunderstorm. Most of the strikes of a real storm will be of the typical strike signature and be placed appropriately.

As mentioned above, stronger than average strikes will be painted closer to the airplane. Looking at this in strike mode, a line of these stronger strikes will protrude toward the aircraft.  The result is a stingray-looking appearance to the strikes.    

You can confirm this by clearing the display.  The same stingray pattern should reappear with the tail protruding once again toward the airplane.

Clear Frequently

Clearing the Stormscope display frequently is a must.  How quickly the display “snaps back” will provide you with an indication of the intensity of the storm or line of storms.

You should be sure to give these storms an extra-wide berth.  Clearing the Stormscope in “clear air” will also remove any false strikes that may be displayed allowing you to focus on real cells that may be building in the distance.

Aging

Both ground-based and onboard lightning use a specific symbol to indicate the age of the data.

For Stormscope data shown on the Garmin 430/530, a lightning symbol is displayed for the most recent strikes (first six seconds the symbol is bolded). The symbol changes to a large plus  sign after one minute followed by a small plus  sign for strikes that are at least two minutes old. Finally, it is removed from the display after the strike is three minutes old.

Cells with lots of recent strikes will often contain the most severe updrafts and may not have much of a ground-based radar signature. Cells with lots of older strikes signify steady-state rainfall reaching the surface that may include significant downdrafts. 

Flight Strategy

A nice feature of a Stormscope is that you can quickly assess the convective picture out to 200 nm while still safely on the ground. Same is true for lightning received from the SiriusXM datalink broadcast.

However, for those with lightning from FIS-B, you won’t receive a broadcast until you are well above traffic pattern altitude unless your departure airport has an ADS-B tower on the field.  

As soon as your Stormscope is turned on, within a few minutes you’ll get a pretty good picture of the challenging weather ahead. If you are flying IFR, you may want to negotiate your clearance or initial headings with ATC to steer clear of the areas you are painting on your display. I’ve canceled or delayed a few flights based strictly on the initial Stormscope picture while I was still on the ramp. 

Another goal is to fly as high as allowable. You will benefit from being able to get above the haze layer, and the higher altitude will allow you to see the larger buildups and towering cumulus from a greater distance.

If you are flying IFR and you are continually asking for more than 30 degrees of heading change to get around small cells or significant buildups, then you should call it quits. You are too close, or you are making decisions too late.

Visual or not, the goal is to keep the strikes (in cell mode) out of the 25-mile-range ring on your Stormscope. If one or two strikes pop into this area, don’t worry. Just keep most of the strikes outside of this 25-mile ring.      

Don’t discount the value of a sferics device.  Add one of the data link cockpit weather solutions as a compliment, and you will have a great set of tools to steer clear of convective weather all year long.

The post Is Sferics Equipment Still Needed in the Cockpit? appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

Significant turbulence events are not particularly uncommon – a Hawaiian Airlines flight made headlines last year, and a Southwest flight was forced to divert due to turbulence earlier this spring – but the Singapore Airlines flight brought the first turbulence-related fatality in years.

• READ MORE: Severe Turbulence Blamed in Death Aboard Singapore Airlines Flight

This flight begs the question of how pilots, dispatchers, air traffic controllers, and other stakeholders can predict turbulence and avoid it. Detecting turbulence can be difficult, and not all turbulence is predictable, but there are ways to identify where it could occur.

Convective Activity

The biggest indicator of turbulence is convective activity. When unstable air is allowed to rise – by a lifting force such as a front or a mountain range – its movement becomes what we call turbulence. Pilots can identify where convective action is occurring to pinpoint areas where they could experience turbulence.

The easiest way to identify areas of convective turbulence is to look at clouds. When clouds become vertically developed – when they extend high into the sky in puffs – it is likely that turbulence is present because air needs to be pushed upwards considerably to allow moisture to condense into towering clouds. The same is true with heavy, showery rain: such comes about when air is forced upwards enough to create rain. In heavy storms, the turbulence is compounded by downdrafts that force rain to the surface, passing through the updrafts that allow the storm to develop in the first place.

Mountain Waves

Another place where turbulence is common is over mountain ranges. Mountains provide a natural lifting mechanism for unstable air, allowing air to rise and move around more strongly. This extra movement is often most noticeable the closer you are to the mountains, which is why mountainous areas often have the bumpiest takeoffs and landings. These are commonly referred to as mountain waves.

Pilots have additional tools to help them predict turbulence. In the United States, the Aviation Weather Center – part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – creates aviation-specific weather reports and forecasts to help crew identify weather patterns conducive to atmospheric instability.

• READ MORE: Treat High-Altitude Turbulence with Knowledge and Respect

Most important are inflight aviation weather advisories called AIRMETs, SIGMETs, and Convective SIGMETs. AIRMETs apply mostly to smaller aircraft; they pertain to activies such as areas of low clouds and visibility and moderate turbulence. SIGMETs and Convective SIGMETs apply to all aircraft regardless of size.

Convective SIGMETs are the most applicable for finding areas of extreme turbulence. They may be issued for things such as lines of severe thunderstorms called squall lines; tornadoes; embedded thunderstorms; surface winds greater than 50 knots; and more. These provide pilots with information on the areas most critical to avoid inflight.

New Tools Available

There are also third-party apps that help crews and even passengers, predict where the smoothest rides will be. They take weather and pilot reports to make assessments and predictions about where the smoothest rides will be, allowing for safer, more comfortable trips. They also use real-time data to cross-check the accuracy of their systems.

In addition, pilots are able to use a reporting system – called PIREPs – to warn others of their observations, including icing and turbulence. Crews use these reports and predictions to make decisions about which routes to take, which altitudes to fly, or even whether to fly at all.

• READ MORE: ForeFlight Introduces Reported Turbulence Map

Not every bit of turbulence is predictable, though. There is another type of turbulence called “clear air turbulence” that can seemingly appear out of nowhere and will not show up on radar. This type of turbulence tends to take pilots by surprise and does not provide any possibility of avoidance. This is a big reason why pilots and cabin crew tell passengers to fasten their seatbelts whenever seated, even if the seatbelt sign is off: if turbulence suddenly takes an aircraft by surprise, passengers reduce their own risk if they are already strapped in.

Severe and extreme turbulence events are still exceedingly rare in the context of how many commercial flights operate each day.

Editor’s Note: This article first appeared on AVweb.

The post How Pilots Predict Severe Turbulence appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

I have been using 1800WXBRIEF.com and Aviation Weather Center for years since they don’t require a paid subscription. But according to the CFIs at the school I just started flying with, these are not considered legal weather briefings. 

Answer: The question asked begs another one: Legal to whom? 

FAA regulations, notably FAR 91.103, require pilots to obtain weather reports and forecasts. However, according to an FAA spokesperson, “the FAA does not prefer one weather source over another, nor do we define a ‘legal weather briefing.’ It is up to the pilot in command (PIC) to use a weather source that best suits their needs and allows them to meet the preflight planning requirements.“

That being said, there are some CFIs and flight schools that advocate paid subscriptions, such as ForeFlight, and free discreet login services, such as 1800WXBRIEF, because in addition to providing information, they also allow the pilot to file a flight plan. They also require an account, which means it’s easier to prove the pilot obtained a weather briefing prior to the flight because there will be a record of the login.

The latter is often one of the first things the National Transportation Safety Board checks when it investigates an accident or incident.

At the very least, a pilot should check TAFs, METARs, winds aloft, and NOTAMs prior to a flight. It is distressing how many pilots and pilots in training believe that listening to the ATIS/ASOS/AWOS at the airport or along their route constitutes a weather briefing. They don’t. 

Nor does looking out the window at the FBO. Any more than “pretty good” is a PIREP. 

The post Is There an Official Weather Briefing? appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

Northrop Grumman, I needed something that would challenge my mind, body, and spirit. There were two options on the table. I had just graduated with my master’s degree and was seriously thinking of taking the next leap of faith and earning a doctorate.

But that was quickly overshadowed by my second option—my childhood dream of learning to fly. And I wasn’t disappointed. It did challenge my mind, body, and spirit every step of the way.

What intrigued me the most about learning to fly was that it required mastering many disciplines. In other words, it’s more than just jumping into an airplane and learning stick-and-rudder skills. You have to become entrenched in subjects such as aerodynamics, radio navigation, geography, radio communications, airspace, map reading, legal, medical, and my favorite discipline, meteorology.

Despite my background as a research meteorologist, my aviation weather background was limited when I was a student pilot. So, I was very excited to discover what more I might learn about weather in addition to all of these other disciplines. If you are a student pilot, here are some tips that will help you achieve a good foundation with respect to weather.

It Isn’t Easy

First and foremost, weather is inherently difficult. It’s likely the most difficult discipline to master because of the uncertainty and complexity it brings to the table. Therefore, strive to understand what basic weather reports and forecasts the FAA effectively requires that you examine before every flight. It certainly doesn’t hide it. It’s a fairly short and succinct list that’s all documented in the new Aviation Weather Handbook (FAA-H-8083-28) and the Aeronautical Information Manual (AIM). Ultimately, knowing the nuts and bolts of this official weather guidance will help with your knowledge and practical tests and give you a head start once the ink is dry on your private pilot certificate.

Second, as a student pilot, plan to get your weather guidance from a single and reliable source. Try not to bounce around using multiple sites or apps. There are literally hundreds, if not thousands, of websites and apps that will deliver weather guidance to your fingertips such that you can become overwhelmed with all of the choices, and entropy quickly takes over. Besides, flight instructors love to show off their unique collection of weather apps on their iPhone. Sticking with the official subset of weather guidance will allow you to focus on what matters the most.

• READ MORE: Aviation Weather Center Website Upgrade—the Good, Bad, and Ugly

Once you receive your private certificate, then you can expand the weather guidance you use to include other websites and apps.

The two internet sources that should be at the top of your list include the Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov) and Leidos (1800wxbrief.com). Both of these sites provide the essential weather guidance needed to make a preflight weather decision. Using one or both of these sites will help focus you on the official weather guidance the FAA demands you use.

Categorize Your Data

Third, when you look at the latest weather guidance, take a minute and characterize each product. It should fall into one of three categories: observational data, advisories, or forecasts. Knowing its category will tell you how to properly utilize that guidance. For example, if you come across a visible satellite image, that’s an example of observational data.

Observational data is always valid in the past and typically comes from sensors. What about a ground-based radar mosaic (e.g., NEXRAD)? That’s also an observation. Pilot weather reports (PIREPs) and routine surface observations (METARs) are also considered observational data. While not a pure observation, the latest surface analysis chart that is valid in the recent past will identify the major players driving the current weather systems.

• READ MORE: What Is the Criteria for Issuing a Convective SIGMET?

Observations are like the foundation when building a house. All other weather guidance you use will build on that foundation. A sturdy and well-built foundation is the key to a good preflight weather briefing. You can’t know where the weather is going until you know where it has been. Identifying the latest trends in the weather through the use of these observations is the cornerstone of this foundation. When possible, looping the guidance over time will expose these trends. Is the weather moving or stagnant? Is it strengthening or weakening over time?

Advisories such as the initial graphical AIRMETs (G-AIRMETs) snapshot, SIGMETs, and center weather advisories (CWAs) are the front lines of aviation weather. They are designed to highlight the current location of the truly ugly weather. Advisories build the structure that sits atop of this foundation. Essentially, these advisories summarize the observational data by organizing it into distinct hazards and areas of adverse weather to be avoided.

Forecasts are the springboard for how these observations and advisories will evolve over time. You can think of forecasts as the elements that protect the finished house, such as paint, shingles, and waterproofing. This also includes the alarm and surveillance system to alert you to the possible adverse weather scenarios that may occur during your flight. While forecasts are imperfect, they are still incredibly useful. Forecasts include terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAFs), convective outlooks, prog charts, and the remaining four snapshots for G-AIRMETs.

Dive into the Details…

Fourth, details matter quite a bit. Look at the guidance and identify what stands out. Don’t make a decision too early. Instead, carefully observe and gather facts. Is the precipitation occurring along the route limiting the ceiling and/or visibility? Is the precipitation expected to be showery? This is a clear indication of a convective process in place.

Are the surface observations reporting two or three mid- or low-level cloud layers? Again, this is another indication of a convective environment. This can be especially important to identify, especially when there’s a risk of thunderstorms that have yet to form.

…But Fall Back on the Big Picture

Fifth, get a sense of the big weather picture. This is likely the most difficult aspect of learning how to truly read the weather. Think about the big weather picture as the blueprint for building an entire community. It’s what brings everything together. When I do my own preflight briefings, my decisions are largely driven by what’s happening at that synoptic level.

Lastly, read, read, and read some more. Focus mostly on the weather guidance and less on weather theory. These are the specific weather products mentioned earlier. Weather theory is something you can tackle at a later time. The FAA’s Aviation Weather Handbook is a great start. You can download a PDF document for free from the agency website and add this to your online library. This was issued in 2022 to consolidate the weather information from six FAA advisory circulars (ACs) into one source document. My book, Pilot Weather: From Solo to the Airlines, was published in 2018 and is written for pilots at all experience levels in their journey to learn more about weather.

If you fly enough, you will eventually find yourself in challenging weather. The goal of any preflight weather briefing is to limit your exposure to adverse conditions, and that takes resources and time. Once you’ve mastered the weather guidance, then giving Flight Service a call at 1-800-WXBRIEF will allow you to sound like a true professional.

Yes, I eventually did earn that doctorate, but I am really happy that I took the step over 25 years ago to learn to fly. One guarantee with weather: You can never learn enough. I am still learning today.

This column first appeared in the March 2024/Issue 946 of FLYING’s print edition.

The post How to Wrap Your Head Around Weather appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

Answer: During the warm season, convective weather has a huge impact on the National Airspace System (NAS). As the amount of usable airspace diminishes on any given day, this ultimately engenders delays in the system. A departure within busy airspace usually means a delay. In the worst-case scenario, ground stops may be levied depending on route of flight and destination airport. Nevertheless, forecasters at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) are busy at work issuing advisories to warn pilots of these dangerous convective areas.  

A single-cell, pulse-type thunderstorm is normally easy to spot in the distance and maneuver around while in flight. In this situation, a deviation around such a cell does not eat into your fuel reserves. However, when thunderstorms become embedded, severe, or dense in coverage within an area or along a line, they are considered a significant en route hazard to aviation. This often requires you to plan a more circuitous route, which means carrying extra fuel than if you flew a direct route. It is in this case that an AWC forecaster will issue a convective SIGMET (WST) to “protect” this airspace. 

When you hear “convective SIGMET” during your preflight briefing, don’t think of it as a forecast for thunderstorms. Instead, think of it as a “NOWcast” of organized convection that may be highly challenging or dangerous to penetrate. These active thunderstorms must meet specific criteria before a convective SIGMET is issued. Areas of widely scattered thunderstorms, such as shown in the XM-delivered satellite radar image below, are generally easy to see and avoid while in flight and often do not meet convective SIGMET criteria.

Nevertheless, on any particular eight-hour shift a single forecaster at the AWC’s convective SIGMET desk looks at all of the convective activity occurring throughout the conterminous U.S. on a continual basis. On an active convective weather day, they are likely the busiest forecaster on the planet. This forecaster is given the responsibility to subjectively determine if an area or line of convection represents a significant hazard to aviation using these minimum criteria:

• A line of thunderstorms is at least 60 miles long with thunderstorms affecting at least 40 percent of its length.
• An area of active thunderstorms is affecting at least 3,000 square miles covering at least 40 percent of the area concerned and exhibiting a very strong radar reflectivity intensity or a significant satellite or lightning signature.
• Embedded or severe thunderstorm(s) are expected to occur for more than 30 minutes during the valid period regardless of the size of the area. 

For reference, 3,000 square miles represents about 60 percent of the size of the state of Connecticut.

Will an advisory be issued as soon as the convection meets one or more of these criteria? Possibly. A special convective SIGMET may be issued when any of the following criteria are occurring or, in the judgment of a forecaster, expected to occur for more than 30 minutes of the valid period:

• Tornadoes, hail greater than or equal to three-quarters of an inch in diameter, or wind gusts greater than or equal to 50 knots are reported.
• Indications of rapidly changing conditions, if in a forecaster’s judgment they are not sufficiently described in existing convective SIGMETs.

However, special issuances are not the norm, especially when there is a lot of convective activity to capture. In most cases, a convective SIGMET is not issued until the convection has persisted and met the aforementioned criteria for at least 30 minutes. Given that these advisories are routinely issued at 55 minutes past the hour, any convection that has not met the criteria by 25 minutes past the hour may not be included in the routine issuance. Consequently, there are times where a dangerous line or area of developing thunderstorms could be present without the protection of a convective SIGMET. All convective SIGMETs will have a valid time of no more than two hours from the time of issuance.

• READ MORE: Surviving Thunderstorms: Cut Your Risk

Last but not least, these convective SIGMETs are often coordinated by an AWC forecaster with meteorologists at the various Center Weather Service Units (CWSUs) located throughout the country at the various Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs). At times, a meteorologist at the CWSUs may issue a Center Weather Advisory (CWA) when building cells are approaching convective SIGMET criteria. The goal is not to duplicate advisories when possible and provide the best guidance for pilots.

The post What Is the Criteria for Issuing a Convective SIGMET? appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

But wait, is vertical visibility even a legitimate visibility? Actually, it’s a bit of a misnomer and not a true measure of visibility in the traditional sense. Vertical visibility is a close cousin to ceiling. That is, it represents the distance in feet a person can see vertically from the surface of the Earth into an obscuring phenomenon, or what is called an indefinite ceiling. What isn’t obvious is how vertical visibility is determined, and how this is different from a definite ceiling.

It’s arguable that an indefinite ceiling is perhaps the most misunderstood phenomenon reported in a routine (METAR) or special surface (SPECI) observation. Forecasters will add vertical visibility in a terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF) as illustrated in the image below for Bradford Regional Airport (KBFD) in Pennsylvania. Whether this occurs in a METAR or TAF, vertical visibility is coded as “VV” followed by a three-digit height in hundreds of feet above the ground level. For example, you may see “VV002,” which is a vertical visibility of 200 feet. While a definite ceiling can be broken or overcast, a vertical visibility always implies the sky is completely covered. Let’s explore the difference between a definite and indefinite ceiling and the operational considerations.

Automated Observations

In the early days, human weather observers used to employ what were called “pilot balloons” to estimate the ceiling height. Essentially the balloon was launched by the observer and, given the balloon’s known rate of ascent, they watched the balloon enter the base of the clouds and measured the time it took using a stopwatch to determine the ceiling height. Then new technology emerged called a rotating beam ceilometer that measured the height of clouds. While it was more effective than launching a balloon, this method was phased out around 1990 and replaced with the laser beam ceilometer, the technology still widely used today.

The task of walking outside and assessing the height of clouds is generally a thing of the past given that this technology is incorporated into the automated surface observing system (ASOS) or automated weather observing system (AWOS) present at many airports throughout the U.S. The trained observer simply logs in to the ASOS (or AWOS) and makes their observation based on the data gathered and reported by the automated system. Then the observation is edited and augmented by the observer as necessary. Depending on the airport, this process may be completely automated.

In all honesty, making an estimate of the height of the cloud base isn’t the difficult part. What’s difficult is to provide a representative description of the amount of cloud coverage (e.g., few, scattered, broken, or overcast) in the airport’s terminal area. A laser beam that points straight up may easily miss a scattered or broken cloud deck. To alleviate this issue, the automated systems process the data over a given amount of time since clouds are generally moving through the sensor array area. It was found that a 30-minute time period provided a representative and responsive observation similar to that created by a trained observer. The most recent 10 minutes of sky cover and ceiling height are double weighted using a harmonic mean. (A harmonic mean is used in the visibility and sky cover algorithms rather than an arithmetic mean because it is more responsive to rapidly changing conditions such as decreasing visibility or increasing sky coverage/lower ceiling conditions.) In the end, the goal is to provide an observation representative of the airport’s terminal area, which is the area within 5 sm from the center of the airport’s runway complex. Visibility, wind, pressure, temperature, etc., all have their own harmonic means accordingly.

In our everyday experience, we know that many cloud decks observed from the ground have a very well-defined base. For an untrained observer, it might not be a simple task to determine their height. However, it’s easy to pick out where the base of the cloud starts. Even in these cases, the cloud decks may vary in height and multiple cloud layers may exist. Visually, that may be more difficult to discern for the untrained eye, but automated systems do a reasonable job making that observation. In a convective scenario, it is not unusual to see multiple scattered and broken cloud heights. For example, at the West Michigan Regional Airport (KBIV) the following was observed:

KBIV 122353Z AUTO 08011KT 4SM RA BR FEW011 SCT048 OVC065 19/18 A2972

This observation includes three definite cloud layers, which are a telltale sign that a convective environment is in place even before the first lightning strike.

Nuts and Bolts

An ASOS continuously scans the sky. To determine the height(s) of the clouds, the backscatter returns from the ceilometer are put into three different bins. When there’s a “cloud hit,” the system identifies a well-defined and sharp signature pattern that you’d expect with the sensor striking the cloud base. Essentially this means most of the hits are aggregated around a particular height above the ground. Such a sharp signature is then incorporated into the 30-minute sky cover and cloud height harmonic average, and a new observation is born.

On the other hand, a “no hit” is recorded when there isn’t an ample amount of backscatter received, usually because there are no clouds below 12,600 feet agl over the sensor. Note that the ASOS (and AWOS) is designed only to detect clouds below 12,600 feet above the ground, although a trained observer can and does report higher clouds. Lastly, if the backscatter does not provide that sharp signature around a particular height, an “unknown hit” is recorded. It is this unknown hit that leads us down the path to an indefinite ceiling or vertical visibility.

Haze, Mist, and Fog, Oh, My!

So, isn’t an indefinite ceiling the same thing as a ground fog event? Not necessarily. Stratus is the most common cloud associated with low ceilings and reduced visibility. Stratus clouds are composed of extremely small water droplets or ice crystals (during the cold season) suspended in the air and may be touching the surface, so to speak. An observer along a coastal region or on the side of a mountain would likely just call this plain old fog. This is certainly understandable, since we grew up calling this kind of situation foggy.

Fog, however, is thought to be more of an obstruction to visibility from a surface observing standpoint. To understand the recording of obscurations, here’s how the ASOS automatically determines what to report. Once each minute, the obscuration algorithm checks the reported visibility. When the visibility drops below 7 sm, the current dew point depression (temperature-dew point spread) is checked to distinguish between fog (FG), mist (BR), and haze (HZ). If the dew point depression is less than or equal to 4 degrees Fahrenheit (~2 degrees Celsius), then FG or BR will be reported. Visibility will then be used to further differentiate between FG and BR.

Whenever the visibility is below five-eighth sm, FG is reported regardless of the “cloud” that produces it. So fog isn’t really about a cloud or ceiling as much as it is about visibility. Therefore, stratus and fog frequently exist together. In many cases, there is no real line of distinction between the fog and stratus; rather, one gradually merges into the other. Flight visibility may approach zero when flying in stratus clouds. Stratus over land tends to be lowest during night and early morning, dissipating by late morning or early afternoon. Low stratus clouds often occur when moist air mixes with a colder air mass or in any situation where temperature-dewpoint spread is small.

• READ MORE: Decoding the Weather

Moisture-Rich Environment

Essentially, an indefinite ceiling means there is something obscuring your view of the cloud base. When you look up, you won’t be able to see a well-defined cloud base like you would on a day where the sky isn’t obscured. According to the ASOS User’s Guide, “these ‘unknown hits’ are primarily caused by precipitation and fog that mask the base of the clouds.” The laser beam bounces off moisture at various heights, making it impossible to process this as a definite cloud hit. Instead, the ASOS identifies these unknown hits as a vertical visibility abbreviated as “VV” in the resulting routine or special observation.

Given the broad moisture field near the surface that scatters the laser beam signal, indefinite ceilings are guaranteed to be paired with low visibility situations. You are not going to see a surface visibility of 10 miles paired with a VV of 200 feet. Usually this means a low or very low IFR flight category anytime there’s an indefinite ceiling. Also keep in mind that an indefinite ceiling in a terminal forecast will result in a low visibility forecast.

In general, the higher the vertical visibility, the better the surface visibility. Therefore, a vertical visibility of 200 feet (VV002) is usually met with a visibility of one-half sm. Furthermore, a vertical visibility of 700 feet (VV007) will likely be associated with a visibility between 1 and 2 sm. While rare, you may even see a fairly high vertical visibility over 1,000 feet (e.g., VV012). In this case, the surface visibility may be over 3 sm. The really bad stuff, however, occurs with a visibility of one quarter sm (or even “M1/4 SM” denoting less than that) and a vertical visibility of zero feet (VV000) as illustrated in the image below for Bradford Regional Airport. This very low indefinite ceiling is not all that common unless you are stationed on the summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire, where this low vertical visibility happens quite often throughout the year. It also occurs fairly often at airports along West Coast regions of the U.S., especially during their “May gray” or “June gloom” time frame.

As mentioned earlier, fog and precipitation are the two primary reasons the base of the cloud deck is obscured. Therefore, it’s common to see vertical visibility reported when light rain, drizzle, or even snow is falling from the cloud base.

Precipitation or not, it’s generally rare to see a single station reporting an indefinite ceiling. Most of the time, you will see indefinite ceiling reports embedded in a widespread area of low or very low IFR conditions, especially at coastal airports. Although airports such as Nantucket Memorial Airport (KACK) in Massachusetts can be reporting a low indefinite ceiling, at stations farther inland near Cape Cod the sky can be clear or nearly so.

It’s important to note that conditions producing an indefinite ceiling often take longer to improve. Normally there will be a transition from an indefinite to definite ceiling once the moisture begins to mix out with the help of the sun. However, the visibility may still be quite low for the next few hours. Keep this in mind when flight planning to an airport reporting an indefinite ceiling.

Operational Significance

From a practical standpoint, you should treat an observation or forecast for a vertical visibility the same as you’d treat a definite ceiling. Given the nature of conditions that produce an indefinite ceiling, you can expect a longer transition as you depart into such a ceiling under IFR. It’s easy to get spatial disorientation because of the gradual change.

An indefinite ceiling restricts the pilot’s flight (air-to-ground) visibility. Therefore, an instrument approach may be a bit more challenging even after you drop below the reported ceiling height because of the reduced visibility. Most importantly, a circle-to-land approach with an indefinite ceiling will make it quite difficult to keep the runway in sight, especially at night. And, as a final consideration, with an indefinite ceiling, don’t be surprised to see runway visual range also pop up in the observation for airports with such equipment.

This feature first appeared in the October 2023/Issue 942 of FLYING’s print edition.

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On Monday, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport (KSBA) was closed due to flooding from as much as 10 inches of rain. According to the airport website, the facility will remain shut down until further notice—more specifically until the water recedes and authorities can check for and repair any damage.

The airport saw 35 flights were canceled on Monday.

According to multiple media sources, Santa Barbara County has been hammered by heavy rain, leading to landslides, downed power lines, and flooding in multiple areas, including the airport that sits at an elevation of just 13.5 feet above sea level. The facility is located in the city of Goleta and bordered by a wetland area known as the Goleta Slough. Local aviation sites note the airport closes frequently due to flooding caused by heavy rains. The entire area is under a flood warning, and there have been multiple evacuations.

FAA NOTAMs have been published to warn pilots that Runways 15R/33L and 15L/33R are closed, and the safety area of Runway 07/25 has standing water.

• READ MORE: California Airports Reeling from Heavy Rain

Early in its use, the airport, opened in 1914, had a seaplane base established by the Lockheed brothers. In 1942 the government took over the airport to create Marine Corps Air Station Santa Barbara, but it reverted to civilian use in 1946. Today it covers 948 acres with three runways and is served by several major airlines in addition to general aviation operations.

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