NASA officials on Wednesday held a media briefing, during which stakeholders revealed that confidence in Starliner’s ability to return the astronauts is waning. According to Ken Bowersox, associate administrator of the agency’s Space Operations Mission Directorate, teams are “getting more serious about evaluating our other options.”

The primary alternative, officials said, is to fly SpaceX’s upcoming Crew-9 mission with two astronauts rather than four, leaving room for Wilmore and Williams to hitch a ride when that mission concludes in February. They estimated that NASA will make a decision by mid-August.

“We could take either path,” Bowersox said.

Boeing and SpaceX representatives were not present on the call, the intention of which, NASA said, was to provide the agency’s perspective on the mission.

On its way up to the ISS, Starliner suffered two main issues that are giving crews pause over how to return the astronauts. A set of helium leaks that emerged on the spacecraft have since stabilized, according to NASA. However, the other issue, which involves five faulty reaction control system (RCS) thrusters on Starliner’s expendable service module, is still being evaluated.

Officials on Wednesday said ground testing of an identical thruster at White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico revealed that the problem is linked to a tiny Teflon seal on an oxidizer poppet, which controls the flow of propellant into the thruster. Teams theorize that the extreme heat the thrusters experienced during Starliner’s rendezvous with the ISS caused the Teflon to expand, inhibiting flow and causing them to fire at weaker-than-expected levels.

According to Steve Stich, who manages NASA’s Commercial Crew program, a July 27 Starliner hot fire test showed that the affected thrusters—with the exception of one, which has been deactivated—are now firing as expected. This has led engineers to hypothesize that the teflon seals contracted and are no longer blocking propellant from reaching the thrusters. Now, the task is to understand how and why.

Teams are working to better understand how those seals might behave during Starliner’s return trip, but there is not yet consensus on whether they are good to go. According to Bowersox and Stich, there is internal disagreement about returning the astronauts on Starliner versus Dragon, which was amplified with the discovery of the faulty teflon seal.

“We heard enough voices [on the program control board] that the decision is not clear,” said Bowersox.

The officials explained that Boeing, which on Friday asserted it has high confidence in Starliner, is viewing risk based on previous missions and flight performance, while NASA wants to understand the root cause of the issue before it has confidence in returning with crew. Ultimately, NASA administrator Bill Nelson will have the final say.

“Reasonable people could have different views on which path we should take,” said Bowersox, who acknowledged that the chance of an uncrewed return has risen in recent weeks. “I don’t think anyone has taken a view that you could prove is wrong or right.”

NASA will have until mid-August to decide whether the Dragon contingency plan should be put into action.

The ISS has two docking modules that are occupied by Starliner and SpaceX’s Crew-8 capsule, meaning Starliner would need to autonomously undock before Crew-9 launches on September 24. Crew-8 would then depart the space station with the crew of NASA’s Expedition 71, and the Crew-9 Dragon would take its place, leaving one docking port open for the next SpaceX cargo mission. Wilmore and Williams would stay for the duration of Crew-9, flying home with the two-person Expedition 72 crew in February.

The problem, though, is that Starliner’s flight software is not currently capable of an autonomous undocking despite having achieved the feat during an uncrewed mission in 2022.

For the CFT, the software was configured for a crewed undocking, as per the mission profile. Now, Boeing and NASA must modify the mission data load to reconfigure the system for an uncrewed undocking, which sources say could take up to one month. NASA said the spacecraft has built-in fault tolerance that would prevent it from colliding with the ISS should its thrusters not perform as expected during that maneuver.

The agency said it has been in daily communication with Wilmore and Williams and that the astronauts are prepared for whatever path it ultimately takes. If they stay along with Crew-9, they will assist personnel with scientific research, including spacewalks. Additional materials, such as spacesuits, would be sent up with the Dragon.

“Butch and Suni are ready to support whatever we need to do,” said Dana Weigel, manager of NASA’s ISS program.

Officials insist that despite the internal conflict around Starliner, the vehicle could still be used to return the astronauts in the case of a contingency on the ISS. In those scenarios, Bowersox said, NASA is willing to tolerate a higher level of risk—one that is jeopardizing teams’ ability to complete the CFT as intended.

The worst-case scenario, according to NASA, would be if the helium leak and thruster issues converge during Starliner’s deorbit burn, the maneuver that will place it back in Earth’s atmosphere. An unlikely combination of technical failures could impact the ability of the RCS thrusters to maintain the capsule’s orbital trajectory, though agency research predicts that it could complete the maneuver even with multiple failures.

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The approval will allow SpaceX to stay on schedule with its Crew-9 mission to rotate astronauts at the International Space Station (ISS), which NASA officials on Friday said is planned for no earlier than August 18.

Falcon 9 was grounded by the FAA following a rare mishap during a July 11 launch of Starlink satellites, its first failure after a streak of more than 300 successful missions.

SpaceX on Thursday shed more light on the incident. The company traced the anomaly to a cracked sense line that created a liquid oxygen leak within the rocket’s second stage engine. This caused ignition fluid to freeze, preventing the engine from performing a burn that would have placed the satellites in a circular orbit.

Despite the issue, SpaceX said, the engine continued operating as intended through both of its planned burns, but all 20 satellites were lost.

The FAA swiftly grounded Falcon 9 as is standard whenever a launch does not go according to plan. SpaceX submitted a mishap report on the night of the anomaly.

Steve Stich, manager of NASA’s Commercial Crew program, said Friday that “SpaceX went above and beyond” in its assessment of the issue, working with NASA to develop a fault tree, review spacecraft telemetry, analyze video, and search for similar issues on other Falcon models.

The company has opted to remove the faulty sense line, which is redundant and not a part of the spacecraft’s safety system, for near-term Falcon 9 launches. It also agreed upon several corrective actions with the FAA that will be detailed in the coming days.

The FAA must still give a final sign-off for Crew-9 to launch, but the blessing to return to flight should allow SpaceX to meet its mission timeline. Stich on Friday said Crew-9 will launch no earlier than August 18 from Launch Complex 39-A at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, with the launch window extending into September.

The mission represents the fourth flight of this particular Falcon. It will launch SpaceX’s Crew Dragon on its 45th mission to the ISS. Once onboard, four crewmembers will spend six months conducting a range of experiments, including studying the physics of neutron stars and the behavior of wildfires on Earth.

The ISS’ two docking ports are occupied by SpaceX’s Crew-8 Dragon capsule and Boeing’s Starliner, the latter of which will need to make way for Crew-9. Complicating matters, however, is the unexpected extension of Starliner’s inaugural crew flight test (CFT), which has left astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams aboard the orbital laboratory for nearly two months.

Sources told Ars Technica’s Eric Berger that NASA is considering sending Crew-9 to the ISS with only two astronauts, theoretically making room for Wilmore and Williams to hitch a ride home on SpaceX’s Dragon rather than Starliner.

The scenario is one NASA hopes to avoid. Officials stopped short of calling it a requirement for certification but said that returning the astronauts home on Starliner rather than Dragon is “important” to the program’s goals. According to Stich, teams have finished an approximately monthlong test of Starliner’s thrusters and are working toward a flight readiness review, expected toward the end of next week.

However, Stich also said that NASA has officially handed over the Starliner’s first mission—which was double booked for early next year—to SpaceX. The flight, Starliner-1, will be pushed to no earlier than August 2025, while Falcon 9 and Dragon handle the agency’s tenth commercial crew rotation in February. Starliner-1 will again be double booked with SpaceX Crew-11.

Though SpaceX’s Falcon woes haven’t derailed Crew-9, they may shake up NASA’s busy ISS manifest. The agency is working toward an August 3 launch of Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus, followed by an August 13 Roscosmos launch. Crew-9 would be next, followed by SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn mission, originally scheduled for this month.

Beyond that, NASA wants to make a Soyuz ISS crew exchange in September, launch the Europa Clipper probe in October, and facilitate the Axiom-4 private astronaut mission in November.

Given the rapid turnaround following Falcon 9’s rare mishap, Boeing’s Starliner may be a larger culprit than SpaceX in any future delays.

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Later this year, Space Force Colonel Nick Hague will pilot a NASA mission to the International Space Station (ISS) on NASA’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission aboard the Dragon spacecraft, the service announced. The mission will be the ninth rotation admission at the space station under NASA’s commercial crew program.

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“The core of our mission on the space station is to perform science experiments and collect data,” Hague said. “The [ISS] provides a unique platform in microgravity, which allows researchers from around the world to explore and discover processes that could have significant impact on the behavior of our bodies and the environment around us, both on Earth and off planet.”

The launch, scheduled for no earlier than August, is a history-making first for a Space Force Guardian but marks Hague’s second mission to ISS. In March 2019, Hague, who was then in the Air Force, began a 203-day mission at the space outpost, where he spent nearly 20 hours conducting spacewalks.

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Joining Hague on the Crew-9 mission will be Commander Zena Cardman, Mission Specialist Stephanie Wilson, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Mission Specialist Aleksandr Gorbunov. Once the crew arrives at the station, Hague will transition to a flight engineer role. The Crew-9 mission will then conduct a handover with NASA’s SpaceX Crew-8 mission, which is set to launch to the ISS no earlier than February 22. 

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“Being a part of this mission is a unique honor, but it’s truly a collective effort,” Hague said. “Guardians worldwide ensure safe and secure operations of critical systems for launch and on station. From GPS satellites that underpin our station navigation systems, to space domain awareness sites around the globe that help NASA prevent orbital debris from colliding with the space station, to the launch range that my crew will use when we lift off, Guardians provide critical support without which our NASA human spaceflight program wouldn’t be possible.”

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